https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-024-00478-x
Research
Novel embeddings improve the prediction of risk perception
1
Faculty of Psychology, University of Basel, Missionsstrasse 60–62, 4055, Basel, Switzerland
2
Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Germany
Received:
18
October
2023
Accepted:
4
May
2024
Published online:
22
May
2024
We assess whether the classic psychometric paradigm of risk perception can be improved or supplanted by novel approaches relying on language embeddings. To this end, we introduce the Basel Risk Norms, a large data set covering 1004 distinct sources of risk (e.g., vaccination, nuclear energy, artificial intelligence) and compare the psychometric paradigm against novel text and free-association embeddings in predicting risk perception. We find that an ensemble model combining text and free association rivals the predictive accuracy of the psychometric paradigm, captures additional affect and frequency-related dimensions of risk perception not accounted for by the classic approach, and has greater range of applicability to real-world text data, such as news headlines. Overall, our results establish the ensemble of text and free-association embeddings as a promising new tool for researchers and policymakers to track real-world risk perception.
Key words: Risk perception / Language models / Psychometric paradigm / Free associations
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-024-00478-x.
© The Author(s) 2024
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