EPJ Data Sci. (2015) 4: 9
https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-015-0045-1

Research

Win-stay lose-shift strategy in formation changes in football

¹ Department of Creative Informatics, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-8656, Japan
² CREST, JST, 4-1-8, Honcho, Kawaguchi-shi, Saitama, 332-0012, Japan
³ Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Bristol, Woodland Road, Clifton, Bristol, BS8 1UB, UK

^* e-mail: naoki.masuda@bristol.ac.uk

Received: 9 March 2015
Accepted: 15 June 2015
Published online: 17 July 2015

Abstract

Managerial decision making is likely to be a dominant determinant of performance of teams in team sports. Here we use Japanese and German football data to investigate correlates between temporal patterns of formation changes across matches and match results. We found that individual teams and managers both showed win-stay lose-shift behavior, a type of reinforcement learning. In other words, they tended to stick to the current formation after a win and switch to a different formation after a loss. In addition, formation changes did not statistically improve the results of succeeding matches. The results indicate that a swift implementation of a new formation in the win-stay lose-shift manner may not be a successful managerial rule of thumb.