https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00588-0
Research
A simple and explainable model for park-and-ride car park occupancy prediction
1
Internet Interdisciplinary Institute, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Rambla del Poblenou 154-156, 08018, Barcelona, Spain
2
Department of Engineering, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Carrer de Tànger 122-140, 08018, Barcelona, Spain
Received:
14
March
2025
Accepted:
9
September
2025
Published online:
10
October
2025
In a scenario of growing usage of park-and-ride facilities, understanding and predicting car park occupancy is becoming increasingly important. This study presents a model that effectively captures the occupancy patterns of park-and-ride car parks for commuters using truncated normal distributions for vehicle arrival and departure times. The objective is to develop a predictive model with minimal parameters corresponding to commuter behaviour, enabling the estimation of parking saturation and unfulfilled demand. The proposed model successfully identifies the regular, periodic nature of commuter parking behaviour, where vehicles arrive in the morning and depart in the afternoon. It operates using aggregate data, eliminating the need for individual tracking of arrivals and departures. The model’s predictive and nowcasting capabilities are demonstrated through real-world data from car parks in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area. A simple model extension furthermore enables the prediction of when a car park will reach its occupancy limit and estimates the additional spaces required to accommodate such excess demand. Thus, beyond forecasting, the model serves as a valuable tool for evaluating interventions, such as expanding parking capacity, to optimise park-and-ride facilities.
Key words: Car Park / Parking Lot / Occupancy Prediction / Demand estimation / Park-and-ride / Commuter Behaviour
© The Author(s) 2025
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