https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9
Research
Is it getting harder to make a hit? Evidence from 65 years of US music chart history
1
Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs Lyngby, Denmark
2
Center for Social Data Science, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
3
Department of Computer Science, IT University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
a
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Received:
13
May
2024
Accepted:
7
July
2025
Published online:
2
September
2025
Since the creation of the Billboard Hot 100 music chart in 1958, the chart has been a window into the music consumption of Americans. Since its introduction, the chart has documented music consumption through eras of globalization, economic growth, and the emergence of new technologies for music listening. In recent years, artists have voiced their worry that the music world is changing: Many claim that it is getting harder to make a hit. Until now, however, the claims have not been backed using chart data. Here we show that the dynamics of the Billboard Hot 100 chart have changed significantly since the chart’s founding in 1958, and, in particular, in the past 15 years. Whereas most songs spend less time on the chart now than songs did in the past, we show that top-1 songs have tripled their chart lifetime since the 1960s, and the highest-ranked songs maintain their positions for far longer than previously. At the same time, churn has increased drastically, and the lowest-ranked songs are replaced more frequently than ever. Together, these observations support two competing and seemingly contradictory theories of digital markets: The Winner-takes-all theory and the Long Tail theory. Who occupies the chart has also changed over the years: In recent years, fewer new artists make it into the chart and more positions are occupied by established hit makers. Finally, investigating how song chart trajectories have changed over time, we show that historical song trajectories cluster into clear trajectory archetypes characteristic of the time period they were part of. Our results are interesting in the context of collective attention: Whereas recent studies have documented that other cultural products such as books, news, and movies fade in popularity quicker in recent years, music hits seem to last longer now that in the past.
Key words: Music / Ranking / Popularity / Collective attention
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-025-00571-9.
© The Author(s) 2025
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
